The Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co., Jamie Dimon, addressed the issues surrounding huge deficits, inflationary factors, and geopolitical risk in the U.S. economy while talking to Bloomberg Television at the Global China Summit in Shanghai.
What Happened: While Dimon agreed with the Federal Reserve to wait and see before they decide to cut interest rates, he said that the U.S. economy was likely to fall into “stagflation” as the country faces huge risks from geopolitics, deficits, and price pressures.
“I don’t agree that we’re in a sweet spot,” he told Bloomberg Television.
Stagflation describes an economic scenario where there is slow economic growth combined with high inflation.
Addressing the first round of trade talks with China, which resulted in the 90-day tariff truce, Dimon highlighted that “I don’t think the American government wants to leave China.”
“I hope they have a second round, third round, or fourth round, and hopefully it will end up in a good place.”
Furthermore, Dimon highlighted during the interview that the U.S. needed to “attack the deficit problems,” while justifying how this would affect investors to reduce their positions in the U.S. dollar assets.
“I don’t worry about short-term fluctuations in the dollar,” Dimon said. “But I do understand people might be reducing dollar assets.”
Why It Matters: While Donald Trump‘s “One Big Beautiful Bill” is likely to raise the trade deficit as per the Congressional Budget Office estimates, the rising long-term Treasury yields stoked by Moody’s downgraded and Japanese bond yields are also signalling “debt crisis,” said Ed Yardeni.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index has declined 7.97% on a year-to-date basis amid the intensifying bond sell-off, which is pushing the yields higher. The 30-year Treasuries surpassed the 5% mark on Wednesday.
This rise in yields pushed the stock markets lower as major benchmark indices closed over 1% lower on Wednesday.
The CME Group’s FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 94.7% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its June meeting. A 71.2% probability of the same in July and a 67.5% chance of a cut in the September meeting.
On Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket. The SPY was up 0.19% to $583.95, while the QQQ advanced 0.26% to $514.39, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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