Gasoline prices: How does under $3 a gallon sound this summer?

Gasoline prices are expected to accelerate a catch-up — in a good way — over the coming weeks, to reflect a recent tumble in oil futures.

The national average for gasoline stood at $3.14 per gallon on Friday, according to AAA data. That’s about $0.04 lower than a week ago and about $0.50 less than the same time last year. More expensive summer blends and refinery maintenance sent prices at the pump seasonally higher in March.

While prices eased somewhat in April, a bigger impact of falling oil prices is yet to be seen.

“Given gasoline inventories declining, we haven’t seen gas prices drop nearly as much as oil prices,” GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan told Yahoo Finance. “But with refinery maintenance season wrapping up, I do think there’s becoming a solid chance that we could see the national average below $3 per gallon this summer as inventories will likely soon start to grow.”

At least 23 states already are seeing an average below $3 per gallon, including Texas and the rest of the Gulf Coast, the Midwest, and even parts of New England, like Rhode Island, Maine, and New Hampshire.

The per-gallon price is posted for the grades of gasoline available to motorists at an Exxon station on March 23, 2025, in Littleton, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

On Friday, oil prices notched weekly gains of more than 4% after touching their lowest level in four years on Monday over expectations of a boost in supply while trade war-sparked demand worries linger.

West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures closed just above $61 per barrel. Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, also rose to settle below $64.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries recently agreed to boost production levels next month by the same increase as in May. Wall Street anticipates the cartel will likely raise output in July, putting further pressure on prices.

Year-to-date futures are down more than 14%.

“Our key conviction remains that high spare capacity and high recession risk skew the risks to oil prices to the downside despite relatively tight spot fundamentals,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on Sunday night.

In April, crude oil prices capped their worst monthly drop since November 2021 amid fears over a global economic downturn and demand shock from President Trump’s tariff policy.

President Trump has made lower energy costs a cornerstone of his administration.

“While the recent de-escalation in trade talks has reduced the probability of a bear case, the ‘Trump put’ does not extend to energy, as the administration continues to prioritize lower oil prices to manage inflation,” JPMorgan analysts wrote last week.