As gold trades near all-time highs and global central banks ramp up reserves, a bold thesis is emerging from one of Wall Street’s most influential macro voices: the U.S. Treasury may already be stockpiling gold—and just hasn’t told anyone yet.
“I think there is a chance that the U.S. Treasury might be participating in this accumulation of gold,” said Otavio Costa, portfolio manager at the hedge fund Crescat Capital, in an exclusive interview with Benzinga.
“If you’re a large institution and anything you do moves the market, you don’t announce it—you do it first, and tell the world after.”
“There is a big chance that the U.S. treasury is already accumulating some gold,” he added.
Costa’s comments come at a time when gold prices have defied historical relationships, surging in 2025 despite elevated yields and no Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The metal – as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust GLD – is up over 25% year-to-date, trading near $2,340 per ounce.
Is The Treasury Secretly Stockpiling Gold?
Costa likened the idea to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, suggesting the Treasury could quietly be building a monetary backstop in the form of physical gold.
“It wouldn’t fall into the sovereign wealth fund category, but it could fall into the Treasury itself, in terms of ownership of things like oil” he said.
While Costa emphasized that this is speculation and “nobody has any data” to confirm it, he pointed to the disconnect between physical demand and price action as a possible clue.
“We’ve seen the volume in gold not in line with how much price appreciation we’ve experienced,” he said.
“Large institutions need to go back into owning neutral assets,” Costa said. “Gold is the only asset that carries significant history behind it… even more than Bitcoin.”
The expert said he couldn’t confirm Benzinga’s inquiry about the large volumes of gold reportedly moved from London to New York this year as a possible sign of U.S. Treasury accumulation.
Central Banks Are Still Underinvested In Gold
Gold’s bullish thesis, according to Costa, remains intact not just because of potential U.S. accumulation but due to historically low central bank allocation.
“We’re still about 20% of central banks’ balance sheets in terms of metal ownership,” he said.
That’s well below the 75% peak seen in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
“Once we see gold allocation by central banks get back to above 60% or 70%, I’ll probably change my views,” Costa added. “But we are very far from that.”
Costa also highlighted how dramatically investor sentiment has changed over the past few years.
“Three years ago, the biggest question I used to have was if Bitcoin was going to replace gold. Do you know how many times I get asked that question now? Never,” he said.
According to Costa, gold’s strong performance has reestablished its role as the premier monetary asset, especially in a world grappling with debt, inflation and geopolitical realignment.
Lower Interest Rates, Deglobalization Could Further Fuel The Gold Boom
Unlike previous cycles, gold’s rally has unfolded without help from falling interest rates or declining real yields. Costa says the traditional relationship between gold and real rates is breaking down.
“Real rates could be a challenging way to forecast gold now,” he said.
“Eventually, we’re going to have to force yields lower to manage the debt problem, and that’s when gold has its best moment.”
Another long-term driver Costa cited is the global trend toward deglobalization, which supports increased holdings of neutral reserve assets like gold.
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
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