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Weekly Data for Oil and Gold: Price Review for the Week Ahead

6 hours ago

Tuesday:

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Interest rate decision at 04:30 AM GMT is expected to decline from 4.10% to 3.85%. If this is confirmed it would be the second rate cut in 2025 and could potentially create some losses for the Aussie.

  • Canadian Inflation rate at 12:30 PM GMT. The anticipation here is for a decline of around 0.7% reaching the figure of 1.6%. In the event of this anticipations becoming reality then the loonie might see some short term losses against its pairs.

  • Japanese Balance of trade at 11:50 PM GMT where the expectations are for a decline in the figure from ¥544.1 billion to ¥227.1 billion for the month of April. If the expectations are correct then the yen could face some pressure against the currencies traded against it.

Wednesday

  • UK inflation rate at 06:00 AM GMT. The consensus is for an increase from 2.6% to 3.3% in April. If the consensus is correct then it would be a yearly high figure of British inflation and could potentially create some short minor gains for the quid since it could influence the decisions of the Bank of England on their next meeting.

Thursday

Oil prices held steady on Monday as markets awaited the outcome of Iran-U.S. nuclear talks and key Chinese economic data that could impact commodity demand. Brent crude was at $65.36 and WTI at $62.52 per barrel, with the more active July WTI contract slightly lower. Last week, prices rose over 1% after the U.S. and China paused their trade war, while analysts warned that weak Chinese data could dampen market sentiment.

Chinese industrial production data came out at 6.1% down from the previous reading of 7.7% but higher than the anticipated 5.5%. Uncertainty around the Iran deal, particularly U.S. demands on uranium enrichment, also lent some support to prices.

On the technical side, the price found sufficient resistance in an area of the chart combining the 50-day moving average and the 50% of the daily Fibonacci retracement and has since corrected to the downside. The Stochastic oscillator is in the extreme overbought levels, hinting at a potential continuation of the bearish momentum, and also the moving averages are validating the overall bearish trend as well, therefore supporting the selling narrative.

If the crude oil does continue to lose value then the first area of possible technical support might be found around $60 which is the psychological support of the round number and just above the 23.6% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level.