According to a new Harvard study, the tariffs imposed by the U.S. Government on “Liberation Day” over a month ago have sparked broad-based retail price increases, impacting not just imports but also goods made in America.
What Happened: The study, published on 17th May, and led by Harvard Business School professor Alberto Cavallo and co-authors Paola Llamas and Franco Vazquez, tracked over 330,000 daily prices from four major U.S. retailers, linking them to product origin and tariff classification.
According to the study, while imports were the primary target of the tariffs, “domestically produced goods also saw some gains,” suggesting a broader inflationary impact than anticipated.
Prices of Chinese-origin goods began rising sharply after the U.S. imposed a 125% tariff on April 10th, the study found, but American-made goods weren’t immune. “Many U.S.-made products rely on imported inputs,” the researchers note, pointing to components, packaging, and raw materials sourced from countries hit with new tariffs.
The study also found that retailers began raising prices ahead of formal tariff implementation dates, often in anticipation of demand shifts and margin pressures.
“These findings underscore the wide-ranging impact of trade policy,” the paper concludes, “which can influence retail prices far beyond the specific goods targeted by tariffs.”
Why It Matters: Early this month, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released data showing that U.S. manufacturing shrank for the second-straight month in April.
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 49% in March to 48.7%, marking its third consecutive monthly decline. This has been attributed to the Price Index surging to 69.8%, the highest in nearly three years, driven by tariff-related inflation.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers had warned about this over a month ago, when talking about the impact of the steel tariffs.
He said there are “50 times more workers in industries that use steel than those who work in the steel industry,” adding that all of these industries are now less competitive, as a result of the tariffs, and the “higher input costs.”
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