JPMorgan Chase: US Economy Likely To Skirt Recession, Forecasts Sluggish Growth

JPMorgan Chase‘s chief global strategist suggests that the US economy, while likely to dodge a recession, should brace for slower growth.

What Happened: David Kelly, the chief global strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM, anticipates a deceleration in the US economy due to tariffs and other economic factors.

Despite these challenges, Kelly remains optimistic about the economy’s resilience to stave off a full-scale recession.

“No, we’re not [seeing impacts now]. At the moment, I’d have to say the tariff pullback and also this big tax bill, which is going to put stimulus into 2026 and a little stimulus in 2025, that takes us from more than likely going to have a recession to less than likely we’re going to have a recession this year,” Kelly stated during an with CNBC.

However, Kelly also cautioned about a potential dip in consumer spending due to economic uncertainty and possible inflation resulting from tariff impacts.

Also Read: Donald Trump’s Trade War: JPMorgan Predicts Deals, Higher Taxes and Potential Recession Avoidance

He said, “Consumers are resilient, but there comes a point where you squeeze them enough in terms of tariffs, you’re collecting on the student loans again, and then just the general worry, and, of course, the cutbacks to the government sector, all these things I think are beginning to weigh on consumers. I think it is slowing the economy down, still not willing to say recession.”

Why It Matters: Kelly’s forecast comes at a time when the US economy is grappling with multiple challenges, including tariffs and economic uncertainty.

His prediction of slower growth, while avoiding a recession, suggests a mixed economic outlook. The potential contraction in consumer spending and inflation from tariff impacts underscore the need for strategic economic planning and policy-making.

While the resilience of the US economy is a positive sign, the anticipated slowdown underscores the importance of continued vigilance and proactive economic measures.