Nuclear-Armed India, Pakistan Heading For Conflict Again? Polymarket Bettors Think Yes Amid Pak Minister's 'Imminent' Attack Remark

Cryptocurrency bettors saw high chances of a military conflict between Asian neighbors India and Pakistan as tensions rose sharply following a deadly attack on civilians on the Indian side of Kashmir.

What happened: Odds that India initiates military action against Pakistan before June jumped past 80% on the decentralized prediction market, Polymarket, on Tuesday. Nearly $350,000 has been wagered on the outcome

This market will resolve to “Yes” if India launches a military operation on Pakistani soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or any Pakistani embassies or consulates before June 1. Small fire exchanges along the disputed border won’t qualify as military action.

Note that the Polygon POL/USD-based betting platform can’t be accessed by U.S. residents due to regulatory restrictions.

The platform has faced criticism in the past for launching betting events that aim to profit from conflicts and wars.

Why It Matters: The jump in odds comes after Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif said India’s attack was “imminent” during an interview with Reuters.

Moreover, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave the Indian military complete freedom to decide on the mode, targets, and timing of their attack, according to The Times of India.

Tensions have risen between South Asia’s two nuclear-armed countries after gunmen killed at least 26 tourists and injured several others in Jammu and Kashmir last week. India accuses Pakistan of supporting the attackers, while the latter has denied any participation.

Photo Courtesy: xbrchx On Shutterstock.com